#BVL001 : I'm a fragile bull, be nice to me

Jun 25, 2025

Welcome to The Bitcoin Vector Lite 001.

In our last Bitcoin Vector publication on 18 Jun, we covered how BTC price action was in a pure tactical regime dictated by speculative wars to liquidate short and long positions under a very neutral capital flow environment and with little correlation to traditional markets. Most of the liquidations were to the downside and price hit our 97k target before bouncing.

Top-level summary for 25 Jun 2025 (Current Price: $107.2K):

We're in a tactical reversal liquidating short positions in the absence of real investor flows to support it. This could properly turn mid term bullish if long term investors start chasing. For now it's a wait and see to see how the tactical speculation games resolve relative to real investment in coming weeks.
Price targets
- Buy the dip
  - 106k technical support
  - 103k long liquidation
- Bulls
  - 110k short liquidation
  - 112k short liquidation
Structure at a glance

DON’T GET REKT!
All models are probabilistic. Markets are subject to unpredictable events and the randomness of markets, please use appropriate risk management.

Short Term View

Capital flows into the BTC network remain neutral to bearish. Without increases in capital flows by incoming investors, any BTC rally remains short term tactical without fundamental tailwinds. Our leading indicator of speculative flows hints at future bullish flows given it has started bouncing.

We expect in this neutral flow environment price will continue to move tactically.

In that regard, bears are oversold and bullish speculators will have an easy time as BTC rubber bands back up from selling down too much. Our onchain VWAP is now picking up a reversal of deep overselling. We should note there’s still a lot of medium term profit held by investors so ideally that gets reset as seen in the SOPR model, but it doesn’t have to.

Macro Cycle View

Structurally, Bitcoin remains in a bullish regime, but the signals are clearly late-cycle.

The Swissblock Risk-Off Signal, which tracks structural deterioration, not short-term volatility, continues to print a low-risk environment. Despite geopolitical shocks and $1B in liquidations, this signal has held at zero.

Willy Woo’s Macro Cycle Risk Model which tracks buying demand relative to structural stability is signaling late phase of this bull market and a countdown timer to the top has commenced.

This suggests the underlying market remains intact but vulnerable to fragility if fundamentals don’t improve.

Bitcoin Vector Lite Analytics

Our other publications and products

Bitcoin Vector Lite contains a core set of models ideally suited for a top level read of BTC structure. For a deeper dive you may enjoy our other products:

The Bitcoin Vector
The full range of models included for family offices and institutions.
The Bitcoin Vector Advanced
Real time alerts of short term structural changes for professional traders, family offices and institutions.
The Altcoin Vector
Designed to spot regime shifts and early momentum with precision. For professional traders.
Hawkeye Terminal
Our real time framework, built for larger institutions. Limited to 10 seats.

Disclaimer

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