#BVL038: Bear pause?

Last week in BVL037, we forecast upside grind with capped upside, and a push toward $72.5k, with $75k as a stretch target. That played out with Bitcoin indeed stretching up beyond $74k before being quickly pulled back into the same noisy range, for a net upward grind of $2k beyond where we were a week ago.

Macro headlines have done what they usually do in a stressed market: they amplified the swings. Geopolitical risk rose, oil saw one of its fastest spikes and reversals in recent memory, and risk sentiment whipsawed. These are the kinds of moves that signal fear is still present, even though some indicators are improving (more of that in the letter).

This week we stay focused on the same thesis that has guided us through the bear phase: don’t trade headlines, track underlying signals. This week, we’ll look at whether selling pressure is finally stabilizing, whether a breakout is imminent, and if so how high it could go.