Last week in BVL049, we said Bitcoin was testing its last-resort zone, the area where demand needed to absorb selling pressure or the higher-low formation would start to fall apart.
That failure has now played out.
Bitcoin did not just slip. It lost the supports that were keeping structure intact, while flows weakened and macro pressure tightened.
This is the psychological part of the bear cycle, where conviction is tested again and again. Bullish recoveries can feel like a warm light in the middle of winter, but in bear markets, that light can disappear quickly if demand is not strong enough to hold it.
So this week, the question shifts once again:
Are we witnessing the continuation of a bear-market distribution phase, or the messy process of a bottom that still requires more pain before it can form?
