Hello subscribers, Short term we are coasting bullish with no updates to the on-chain structure reported 2.5 weeks ago. It’s a sit and wait game while price climbs. Over successive past months we’ve been seeing strong accumulation that is only just beginning to be reflected in price. New HODLers continue to arrive pushing the camouflaged organic price floor upwards.
Hi Willy. Thanks so much for doing this!! I'm a regular guy with almost zero market knowledge, and just want to know what timings to buy and sell BTC correctly, and this content seems good!
Hi Willy, very excited about the newsletter, fingers crossed you get the engagement you're looking for. Just wondering how you determine if a bitcoin changing hands peak is going to be green (bullish) or Red (bearish)?
Could you kindly share your thought on Decred? I own some, and stake it to earn passive income. but the price is just all the way down. Thanks in advance
Hi Willy! Glad to see your newsletter live. Been following you since 2018, thanks for everything you have done to advance on-chain analysis. It's an exciting time, definitely reminds me of mid-2016, except with some serious macroeconomic tailwinds in the medium term (short term uncertainty aside). Plenty of skepticism and bearishness in the air, while smart money is scooping up every dip. I'm also excited to see the smart money coming in this time will be institutions and corporations locking up tokens in treasuries for years to come, which should lead to a significant decrease in volatility and BTC's maturity as a bonafide store-of-value. Instead of some of the riff-raff that came in 2017, either highly-strung emotional traders or whales playing selfish derivative games. I mean, we'll have more of that again, but with every cycle, more of the supply gets locked with strong hands.
Inspired by your work, I have developed a model attempting to find an "organic" valuation of BTC approximating macro supply & demand on-chain - the organic price floor as you mention in this edition. It has been working really well for me, and recently I published it online. Of course, I'm not going to shill it here, but would love to get in touch with you somehow and get some feedback. I couldn't send a DM on Twitter, and couldn't find an e-mail. Thanks!
Hey glad to be here and I love your data graphs. If anyone wants some vertical and horizontal line functionality put onto these data graphs, I find the Chrome extension "grid ruler" works very well. Thanks for this service Willie.
What up Willy! Love your posts on Twitter and the information on your website and looking forward to see this report evolve over time.
Any consideration to developing an educational platform to teach the type of data driven analysis you do?
One can get there using a self taught method, I'm doing that now. But if someone had a course that would provide a strong foundation I would pay for it.
I just subscribed to your newsletter and I wish you the best in this endeavor, Willy! I am a college student so this is the most I've paid for a subscription service (primarily because I'm broke) and it is mainly because I've been obsessed to find a fundamentally sound and data-driven approach to value bitcoin and other networks.
I humbly believe there is great value in your work, it is scarce (at least for retail investors) and nearly noiseless. Keep it up!
Willy, I sincerely appreciate your work. I consider your insights part of my rabbit hole journey. It has made a huge difference in my confidence as a store of value for my family long term. Proud to be one of your first subscribers. Sincerely. Aaron @aarondolsen
Hi Willy, thanks for the newsletter. Do you think the FATF Travel Rule is having an impact. Also recent comments of exchanges being compelled to custody assets rather than allow self custody. Do you see this as a possible reason for movement off exchanges. Also do you see this as having any implications for on-chain data and value of Bitcoin?
Thanks for the well wishes everyone! I'm very interested in how this newsletter experiment goes, the reception has been great so far.
Hi Willy. Thanks so much for doing this!! I'm a regular guy with almost zero market knowledge, and just want to know what timings to buy and sell BTC correctly, and this content seems good!
Hi Willy, very excited about the newsletter, fingers crossed you get the engagement you're looking for. Just wondering how you determine if a bitcoin changing hands peak is going to be green (bullish) or Red (bearish)?
Could you kindly share your thought on Decred? I own some, and stake it to earn passive income. but the price is just all the way down. Thanks in advance
I love these letters!!!!
Do you think bitcoin will outperform altcoins in this bull cycle?
Hi Willy! Glad to see your newsletter live. Been following you since 2018, thanks for everything you have done to advance on-chain analysis. It's an exciting time, definitely reminds me of mid-2016, except with some serious macroeconomic tailwinds in the medium term (short term uncertainty aside). Plenty of skepticism and bearishness in the air, while smart money is scooping up every dip. I'm also excited to see the smart money coming in this time will be institutions and corporations locking up tokens in treasuries for years to come, which should lead to a significant decrease in volatility and BTC's maturity as a bonafide store-of-value. Instead of some of the riff-raff that came in 2017, either highly-strung emotional traders or whales playing selfish derivative games. I mean, we'll have more of that again, but with every cycle, more of the supply gets locked with strong hands.
Inspired by your work, I have developed a model attempting to find an "organic" valuation of BTC approximating macro supply & demand on-chain - the organic price floor as you mention in this edition. It has been working really well for me, and recently I published it online. Of course, I'm not going to shill it here, but would love to get in touch with you somehow and get some feedback. I couldn't send a DM on Twitter, and couldn't find an e-mail. Thanks!
Wonderful data here Willy, thanks for your diligent work. Keep it up.
Hey glad to be here and I love your data graphs. If anyone wants some vertical and horizontal line functionality put onto these data graphs, I find the Chrome extension "grid ruler" works very well. Thanks for this service Willie.
What up Willy! Love your posts on Twitter and the information on your website and looking forward to see this report evolve over time.
Any consideration to developing an educational platform to teach the type of data driven analysis you do?
One can get there using a self taught method, I'm doing that now. But if someone had a course that would provide a strong foundation I would pay for it.
I just subscribed to your newsletter and I wish you the best in this endeavor, Willy! I am a college student so this is the most I've paid for a subscription service (primarily because I'm broke) and it is mainly because I've been obsessed to find a fundamentally sound and data-driven approach to value bitcoin and other networks.
I humbly believe there is great value in your work, it is scarce (at least for retail investors) and nearly noiseless. Keep it up!
Hey Willy, I look forward to your next newsletter ;)
Thanks for starting this Willy. Looking forward to what's to come.
Willy, I sincerely appreciate your work. I consider your insights part of my rabbit hole journey. It has made a huge difference in my confidence as a store of value for my family long term. Proud to be one of your first subscribers. Sincerely. Aaron @aarondolsen
Thx for the report, could u add a section for the correlation to other markets like SP500?
Hi Willy, thanks for the newsletter. Do you think the FATF Travel Rule is having an impact. Also recent comments of exchanges being compelled to custody assets rather than allow self custody. Do you see this as a possible reason for movement off exchanges. Also do you see this as having any implications for on-chain data and value of Bitcoin?