Our Models
Here’s the beginners guide to the models in Bitcoin Vector Lite.
Price Targets
In our reports we issue price targets using 2 methods:
TECHNICAL TARGETS
These are areas price in the discovery mechanism where price may find support or resistance. This is determined by classical Technical Analysis, namely identifying on a price chart patterns of past market behavior.LIQUIDATION TARGETS
Liquidation events happen on paper markets where traders make bets on the price against each other. A liquidation happens when one side of the bet loses and their position is closed automatically by the exchange.
We use a model to estimate zones where liquidations may cluster together. If price enters one of the clusters a “squeeze” event starts, driving price quickly in a direction until all the liquidations are burnt through.
There are 2 types of liquidation directions:Bullish short liquidations “short squeeze”: Price rises into a cluster of short liquidations. These short positions are automatically closed by buying back what they originally sold. This pushes price upwards to liquidate more short positions above. And so a cascade of buys ripple through the orderbooks, which moves price upwards quickly. The end of the cluster is the liquidation price target.
Bearish long liquidations “long squeeze”: This is exactly the opposite to a long liquidation described above, driving the price lower quickly.
Swissblock Tactical | Strategic Regime
STRATEGIC
The trend is strong and directional.Holders: No need to time entries — ride the trend.
Traders: Follow momentum. Avoid overtrading.
Mindset: Stay positioned. Let the market do the work.
TACTICAL
No clear trend, price is range-bound and reactive.Holders: Use weakness to optimize entries.
Traders: Trade fast, take profits quicker.
Mindset: Be nimble. Avoid getting trapped.
Swissblock Risk Off Signal
Bitcoin Risk-Off Signal is a proprietary on-chain model designed to detect when structural risk is rising in the Bitcoin network using statistical investor behavior. It detects moments when market conditions become fragile and the probability of a major sell-off increases.
0 : a stable, low-risk environment, most market participants are comfortably positioned.
0 - 0.25 : a moderate risk-off condition, warranting caution.
0.25 - 1.0 : a high-risk-off regime, where the likelihood of forced selling or capitulation grows materially.
This signal provides a forward-looking assessment of behavioral and structural stress in the Bitcoin market, helping investors reduce exposure ahead of major drawdowns.
Willy Woo Macro Cycle Risk
Macro Cycle Risk (MCR) is a proprietary model which provides a views into the liquidity inside the Bitcoin network. This view gives insight into where BTC is located within the bull and bear cycles.
Due to drops in liquidity MCR starts peaking at ~100% in the later stages of a bull market to the market top and remains at ~100% through bear markets before dropping to 0% when sufficient liquidity returns to Bitcoin which supports a macro cycle bottom.
Low or 0% readings of MCR are regions of higher liquidity, supportive of rallies.
Willy Woo Medium Term Oscillators
These oscillators describe the shorter term positioning in the market to give the investor or trader a sense of risk and structure.
Investor VWAP
Takes the price investors are buying at via on-chain data and assesses overbought and oversold regions. This creates headwinds and tailwinds to price action.Speculation
Takes a look into the derivatives market, where traders make paper bets against each other. Here we assess the quantity of long biased betting there is. BTC has a hard time rising when this metric is high and an easier time rising when its low.SOPR, Spent Output Profit Ratio
A classical on-chain model that measures the profit in the coins that investors are selling. When SOPR rises high, the potential for profit taking increases, thus the risk of a pull back increases. When SOPR peaks it’s a sign of profit taking becoming dominant which is a bearish pressure on price.Urgency
This is an estimation of urgent buys or sells hitting the exchange order book. Effectively asking which side of the order book is the most impatient to get their order filled. The side with the most urgency tends to drive the price.
Willy Woo Capital Flows Model
Willy Woo’s Capital Flow Model assesses the capital entering the BTC network.
When flows rise, there’s tailwinds for bullish price action.
When flows decrease, there’s tailwinds for bearish price action.
When flows are neutral, price action can become choppy in either direction with the primary driver of price being liquidation of tactical positions between traders.