Dear free and paid subscribers,There is a common consensus that Bitcoin is a risk-on asset. However this week I’ve been delving into the on-chain data, and it clearly shows investors already consider Bitcoin a safe haven. In other words, medium and long term investors should NOT be bearish on BTC in the case of a possible second pull back in stocks. Consensus wisdom and press coverage see BTC as a risk-on asset, the underlying capital movements disagrees with this view, in fact it’s far from the truth.
Very interesting, we're definitely seeing a whole bunch of entities accumulating BTC for long-term HODL, moving tokens away from derivative gamers.
It's starting to look like 2018-2020 will be remembered as the golden era for crypto manipulation, in hindsight. Or a more positive spin, the golden era for accumulation. As we all know, this is the first time we're seeing institutional investors and corporations scoop up tokens, and they sure as hell won't be hitting the crypto casinos. Moreover, the derivative exchanges are starting to clean up their act significantly, even Bitmex is seeing much less degen activity. I'm sure you've noticed that we've basically stopped seeing the sudden $1,000-in-minutes liquidation runs ever since Bitmex introduced KYC. Of course, I don't want to get my hopes high, maybe the current spot-driven price action is temporary and we'll get back to a derivative-driven market again soon... but cautiously optimistic.
Agree 100%. Note $1000 drops can still happen, it hasn't in a while because the floor price from spot investors are very close to the price action lately.
Yes, absolutely, volatility feeds the bull, after all. We are seeing one today! What I meant are those $1,000-in-minutes plunges, which were almost always driven by liquidation engines going wild. We saw one from $8K > $6K on Black Thursday (and another down to $4K), $10K > $8.2K just before the halving, $12K > $10.5K few months later - those moves completed in less than 10 minutes - stuff like that. Meanwhile, today's drop took 12 hours to complete, and even so in % terms a lot less than the above mentioned ones. It feels much more organic and spot-driven. In the latter stages of the bull market, there'll likely be a day BTC drops $10,000!
The hashrate has been soaring for the last few months, leading to all-time high difficulties. It's normal to expect a pull back to find a more sustainable difficulty for the next retarget. Combine that with the Chinese monsoon season (very cheap HEP) coming to an end, and at these sky high difficulties it's possible (just speculating here, no inside knowledge) some of the older miners are no longer profitable... till the next difficulty retarget at least.
Hi Willy, is BTCUSD on-chain volume profile still a useful metric?
Very interesting, we're definitely seeing a whole bunch of entities accumulating BTC for long-term HODL, moving tokens away from derivative gamers.
It's starting to look like 2018-2020 will be remembered as the golden era for crypto manipulation, in hindsight. Or a more positive spin, the golden era for accumulation. As we all know, this is the first time we're seeing institutional investors and corporations scoop up tokens, and they sure as hell won't be hitting the crypto casinos. Moreover, the derivative exchanges are starting to clean up their act significantly, even Bitmex is seeing much less degen activity. I'm sure you've noticed that we've basically stopped seeing the sudden $1,000-in-minutes liquidation runs ever since Bitmex introduced KYC. Of course, I don't want to get my hopes high, maybe the current spot-driven price action is temporary and we'll get back to a derivative-driven market again soon... but cautiously optimistic.
Agree 100%. Note $1000 drops can still happen, it hasn't in a while because the floor price from spot investors are very close to the price action lately.
Yes, absolutely, volatility feeds the bull, after all. We are seeing one today! What I meant are those $1,000-in-minutes plunges, which were almost always driven by liquidation engines going wild. We saw one from $8K > $6K on Black Thursday (and another down to $4K), $10K > $8.2K just before the halving, $12K > $10.5K few months later - those moves completed in less than 10 minutes - stuff like that. Meanwhile, today's drop took 12 hours to complete, and even so in % terms a lot less than the above mentioned ones. It feels much more organic and spot-driven. In the latter stages of the bull market, there'll likely be a day BTC drops $10,000!
The hashrate of bitcoin falling significantly? will it affect the bitcoin price?
The hash-ribbons look perfectly fine, only a minor dip. I see Jimmy Song just mentioned on Twitter it's miners in China coming off wet season.
The hashrate has been soaring for the last few months, leading to all-time high difficulties. It's normal to expect a pull back to find a more sustainable difficulty for the next retarget. Combine that with the Chinese monsoon season (very cheap HEP) coming to an end, and at these sky high difficulties it's possible (just speculating here, no inside knowledge) some of the older miners are no longer profitable... till the next difficulty retarget at least.