#BVL002: BTC is getting high, now what?

Welcome to The Bitcoin Vector Lite 002! This is the second of our free trial editions.

#BVL003 and beyond will be behind a paywall. They’ll go out mid-week, every week, keeping you inform of the fundamental data-driven structure behind BTC’s price action and also:

• Best price levels to buy

• Where we are in the macro cycle

LAUNCH SPECIAL, in honor of Satoshi, get 28% off forever, which is approx $21 USD. Offer closes 21 July.

• Comments will be opened to free subscribers on this edition only to answer questions you may have.

• We didn’t do a letter last week while we worked on getting the BVL production engine running, they will be WEEKLY here on in, BVL001, 2 weeks ago, has already hit all the expected targets. And now for this week’s edition…

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In our last letter on 25 June, we outlined a tactical regime expecting price to move to liquidate short term trade positions with dip targets of $106k and $103k and upside of $110k and $112k. Since then price dropped as low as $105k before rebounding and indeed liquidated positions hitting our targets of $110k and very recently recently $112k.

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Top-Level Summary for 10 Jul 2025 (Current Price: $113k)

• Bitcoin is now at new all time highs. This move was tactical, taking out short sellers, but structurally BTC is in a good position to continue an upward path due to a recent uptick in liquidity, we want to see investor flows into the network increase from here. The system far from overheated, the stage is set.
  

• Price Targets

  • Buy the dip

    • $111.5k technical support

    • $109.0k long liquidation

  • Bulls

    • 115.5k short liquidation

    • 117.0k short liquidation
      

• Structure at a glance

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DON’T GET REKT!

All models are probabilistic. Markets are subject to unpredictable events and the randomness of markets, please use appropriate risk management.

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Short Term View

Total capital flows entering the network are now neutral, warding off a bearish pivot in last month. There’s plenty of room for more inflows as we are far from peak levels. Under neutral flows, price moves become tactical between speculators. Tactical liquidations have been the culprit for the current move to new highs.

Our medium term oscillators are far from overheated, this means moves to the upside have plenty of room to run.

• There’s no over speculation in paper markets

• Our VWAP model is far from overheated, allowing more room for bullish action before BTC is overbought

We’d also add that there’s a lot of short positions to be liquidated right above all time highs, since we are in a tactical regime they present a juicy target to launch us into all time highs.

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Macro Cycle View

The Swissblock Risk-Off Signal, which tracks structural deterioration, remains at zero, meaning our longer term bullish regime is stable.

Willy Woo’s Macro Cycle Risk model is normally used to gauge our location in the cycle. We’re late stage in a bull market where liquidity starts waning and the structure becomes less stable. This signal can also tell us about the local conditions. Risk has dipped detecting an influx of liquidity, this is strongly supportive of the current break of new highs. This bull market is far from over.

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Bitcoin Vector Lite Analytics

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Our other publications and products

Bitcoin Vector Lite contains a core set of models ideally suited for a top level read of BTC structure. For a deeper dive you may enjoy our other products:

• The Bitcoin Vector
  The full range of models included for family offices and institutions.

• The Bitcoin Vector Advanced
  Real time alerts of short term structural changes for professional traders, family offices and institutions.

• The Altcoin Vector
  Designed to spot regime shifts and early momentum with precision. For professional traders.

• Hawkeye Terminal
  Our real time framework, built for larger institutions. Limited to 10 seats.

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Disclaimer

SWISSBLOCK DOES NOT MAKE ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, REPRESENTATIONS, OR ENDORSEMENTS WHATSOEVER WITH REGARD TO THE REPORT. IN PARTICULAR, YOU AGREE THAT SWISSBLOCK ASSUMES NO WARRANTY FOR THE CORRECTNESS, ACCURACY, AND COMPLETENESS OF THE REPORT. NO INVESTMENT DECISION SHALL BE BASED ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE REPORT, AND YOU ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS. WE ARE NEITHER LIABLE NOR RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY INJURY, LOSSES, OR DAMAGES ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH ANY INVESTMENT DECISION TAKEN OR MADE BY YOU BASED ON INFORMATION WE PROVIDE. NOTHING CONTAINED IN THE REPORT SHALL CONSTITUTE ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION (I.E., RECOMMENDATIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO “BUY”, “SELL”, “HOLD”, OR TO ENTER OR NOT TO ENTER INTO ANY OTHER TRANSACTION INVOLVING ANY CRYPTOCURRENCY). ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED BY US IS IMPERSONAL AND NOT TAILORED TO YOUR NEEDS. WE DO NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION ON THE FUTURE OR EXPECTED VALUE OF ANY CRYPTOCURRENCY, AND WE DO NOT EXPLICITLY OR IMPLICITLY RECOMMEND OR SUGGEST AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY OF ANY KIND. BY USING OUR REPORT, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THESE DISCLAIMERS.